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Big data needs big brains

analyticalsolution

Assume the test for liver cancer gives false-positives (that is, the test is positive, but you don?t have cancer) 10 percent of the time, and false-negatives (the test is negative, but you do have cancer) 25 percent of the time, and the general risk of having liver cancer is one percent.

The test comes back positive. How likely is it that you actually do have liver cancer?

If you?re like most people, your answer will be staggeringly wrong, because humans are extremely bad at estimating risk using just their brains. The answer is you?re only 7.5 percent likely to have liver cancer. How close were you?

Source: www.itnews.com.au

Assume the test for liver cancer gives false-positives (that is, the test is positive, but you don’t have cancer) 10 percent of the time, and false-negatives (the test is negative, but you do have cancer) 25 percent of the time, and the…

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